Chess Futures: An Innovative Approach to Chess Ratings
Abstract: The world of chess has long relied on rating systems to quantify player skill and facilitate fair competition. However, the traditional Elo rating system, although widely used and respected, has its limitations. This paper proposes an innovative approach to chess ratings called Chess Futures, which utilizes three measures to triangulate a more accurate and responsive chess rating. Each measure carries equal weight and aims to capture different aspects of player performance. The first measure incorporates a normal distribution, similar to FIDE Elo but independent of it. The second measure employs stochastic modeling to account for the inherent uncertainty in chess outcomes. Finally, the third measure introduces a tournament performance rating (TPR) that reflects a player's growth over time. Chess Futures represents a significant departure from traditional rating systems, offering a reimagined approach to chess rating that addresses the shortcomings of existing methodologie...